In this analysis, I was curious about the migratory patterns of the modern blue-chip high school football recruit. Blue-chip is defined as a 4 or 5-star recruit. Using 247 Composite ratings, I analyzed every BC in the 2019 class across several dimensions. It ended up being a large data set because I got carried away. The factors reviewed were:
- 5-star vs 4-star status
- Home state
- State of school committed to
- School committed to
Then I looked at how many recruits stayed in their home state versus leaving for another state, and each school’s role in that migration. The chart below shows the overall breakdown.
I then looked at how each school contributed to its states’ level of migration. For example, the state of Georgia produced 40 blue-chip recruits (Seven 5-stars and thirty-three 4-stars). 34 of those committed to schools not in Georgia, so they lost 85% of their home state talent. The Georgia Bulldogs, however, have 18 blue-chip high school recruits committed as of this writing. 13 of those come from other states. Their blue-chip poaching percentage is 72%. The chart below shows the findings for every school that has a BC committed.
An important note here. For BCs that are still unsigned, the Crystal Ball percentages were used to include them. So, if a recruit was 51% to University 1 and 49% to University 2, that recruit is included in the data for University 1. I will update after all are signed.
Migration is not just a Florida issue.
Out of the 383 blue-chip recruits for the 2019 class, 255 have committed to or are favored to go to out of state schools, which is 67%. Florida makes up a chunk of that date, with 28 out of 46 (61%) leaving. California (35 out of 47 -74%), Georgia (34 out of 40- 85%), Texas (25 out of 47- 53%), Louisiana (8 out of 15- 53%), and Alabama (9 out of 14- 64%) all have similar issues.
Both 5-stars and 4-stars are equal in terms of migrating away from home, 68% and 66%, respectively.
I won’t disagree with anyone who thinks winning state recruiting battles isn’t important but keeping talent in-state isn’t a common thing in modern times.
Teams with top 20 recruiting classes for 2019 who have the highest poach percentage (number of blue-chip recruits committed who come from out of state relative to BCs from in-state) are:
Schools with the most BC recruits from Florida (either committed or favored by Crystal Ball):
There is a lot more I’m looking at here, and this will be updated after NSD. Check back with me to see what the final numbers look like.