Breaking down the 2020 recruiting class

Now that 2019 is in the books, let’s take a look at how 2020 is shaping up. Obviously, class metrics will change considerably. The benefit to charting how things are looking now versus how they shape up a year from now will provide insight as to how much fluctuation occurs, and maybe provide some relief for fans experiencing angst over their school’s recruiting efforts before the classes are signed. I expect lots of change between now and this time next year, but here is how things are shaping up for next year’s class at the moment.

Overall Summary:

TOTAL N 5-stars N 4-stars N 3-stars
1000 34 309 657
Tot Leaning home 5-star leaning home 4-star leaning home 3-star leaning away
257 15 129 113
Tot Leaning away 5-star leaning away 4-star leaning away 3-star leaning home
211 17 119 75
% Leaning Home % 5-star leaning home % 4-star leaning home %3-star leaning home
26% 44% 42% 17%
% Leaning Away % 5-star leaning away % 4-star leaning away %3-star leaning away
21% 50% 39% 11%

The above chart shows the breakdown of how the top 1000 recruits (247 Composite) are leaning. Many aren’t leaning toward a school yet. Out of the 34 five-star recruits, 15 are leaning toward an in-state school while 17 are leaning toward an out-of-state school. The 2019 class saw 65% of the five-stars leave their home state. Right now, that figure is at 50%.

By Team:

College lean No. of leans No. 5-star No. 4-star No. 3-star Avg. Rate of lean
UCLA 3 1 2 0 0.9568
Georgia 12 3 7 2 0.9458
Ohio State 27 6 18 3 0.9441
Clemson 17 3 13 1 0.9437
USC 13 3 9 1 0.9368
Notre Dame 12 0 11 1 0.9365
LSU 23 2 19 2 0.9360
Penn State 14 3 9 2 0.9356
Alabama 15 2 10 3 0.9338
Oklahoma 14 1 10 3 0.9298
Stanford 9 1 7 1 0.9289
Florida 18 1 13 4 0.9282
Miami 18 0 14 4 0.9220
Washington 7 1 3 3 0.9219
Texas 15 0 10 5 0.9213
N.C. State 7 1 4 2 0.9185
West Virginia 1 0 1 0 0.9149
Louisville 3 0 2 1 0.9143
Tennessee 8 0 5 3 0.9117
Arizona 2 0 1 1 0.9090
Texas A&M 22 3 8 11 0.9076
Florida State 16 1 9 6 0.9074
South Carolina 12 0 8 4 0.9056
Auburn 10 0 7 3 0.9055
Oregon 11 0 8 3 0.9041
Ole Miss 7 0 4 3 0.9041
UTSA 1 0 1 0 0.9020
Michigan 15 0 10 5 0.8963
Arizona State 2 0 1 1 0.8943
North Carolina 4 0 3 1 0.8921
Wisconsin 7 0 2 5 0.8866
Nebraska 2 0 1 1 0.8863
Mississippi State 8 0 4 4 0.8835
Virginia Tech 5 0 2 3 0.8832
California 4 0 1 3 0.8818
Minnesota 5 0 1 4 0.8795
Fresno State 1 0 0 1 0.8789
Arkansas 10 0 1 9 0.8785
TCU 2 0 1 1 0.8781
Michigan State 10 0 2 8 0.8743
Kentucky 4 0 0 4 0.8736
Duke 3 0 0 3 0.8703
Purdue 3 0 1 2 0.8670
Oregon State 3 0 1 2 0.8668
Maryland 2 0 0 2 0.8667
Northwestern 4 0 0 4 0.8663
Iowa 8 0 1 7 0.8634
Utah 3 0 0 3 0.8626
Oklahoma State 4 0 1 3 0.8608
N/A 532 2 61 469 0.8605
Brigham Young 5 0 1 4 0.8596
Missouri 5 0 0 5 0.8576
Baylor 5 0 0 5 0.8569
Iowa State 5 0 0 5 0.8561
Boston College 6 0 1 5 0.8527
Rutgers 1 0 0 1 0.8527
Texas Tech 3 0 0 3 0.8520
Cincinnati 2 0 0 2 0.8477
Tulsa 1 0 0 1 0.8477
Virginia 2 0 0 2 0.8445
Colorado 1 0 0 1 0.8427
Vanderbilt 2 0 0 2 0.8366
UAB 1 0 0 1 0.8366
UCF 1 0 0 1 0.8333
Wake Forest 1 0 0 1 0.8333
Indiana 1 0 0 1 0.8316

The above table is a breakdown of how each school is doing in recruiting among the top 1000 players currently. Florida currently is 16th in terms of average talent rating for recruits committed/leaning toward them with a score of .9282. UCLA has the highest average, but they only have 3 leans.

By Position:

Position Offense Defense Skill Pos Total 5-stars 4-stars 3-stars Avg. rating
SDE No Yes No 54 3 16 35 0.8803
RB Yes No Yes 73 5 24 44 0.8895
ILB No Yes No 35 2 8 25 0.8765
OLB No Yes No 75 2 27 46 0.8824
WR Yes No Yes 162 5 61 96 0.8895
OT Yes No No 98 3 33 62 0.8870
PRO Yes No Yes 46 1 12 33 0.8798
ATH Yes No Yes 85 1 23 61 0.8788
CB No Yes Yes 78 4 21 53 0.8814
OG Yes No No 43 1 11 31 0.8759
DT No Yes No 66 1 28 37 0.8908
WDE No Yes No 38 3 11 24 0.8864
APB Yes No Yes 13 1 3 9 0.8829
DUAL Yes No Yes 33 1 6 26 0.8718
TE Yes No No 34 1 5 28 0.8692
OC Yes No No 10 0 1 9 0.8688
S No Yes Yes 57 0 19 38 0.8766

This table breaks down the class by position. There are 73 running backs in the top 1000 players, 5 of which are 5-stars, 24 are 4-stars, and 44 are 3-stars. The overall average rating for the position group is .8895. The skill position designation is subjective. Feel free to let me know if you disagree and why. I will gladly take input on that.

The University of Florida Gators:

future gators

This table depicts how Florida’s class is looking now. So far, so good.

By State:

2020collegestate

This map shows how many recruits from this sample are leaning/committed to schools in various states. 53 of them are leaning toward Florida teams, with Florida and Miami each having 18, FSU having 16, and UCF having 1.

By Home State:

2020homestate

This map depicts where the top 1000 recruits for 2020 are from. Of note, 3 are from Canada and not depicted here. Florida and Texas are doing a lot of the heavy lifting, however, Georgia is producing some great players. Here is how the per capita breakdown looks:

State 2018 Population Players produced Per Capita lean (by 10,000)
Hawaii 1420491 18 78.9
Georgia 10519475 105 100.2
Alabama 4887871 45 108.6
Louisiana 4659978 39 119.5
Tennessee 6770010 41 165.1
Florida 21299325 117 182.0
Wisconsin 1805832 9 200.6
Texas 28701845 139 206.5
Nevada 3034392 11 275.9
Missouri 6126452 22 278.5
Kentucky 4468402 16 279.3
Arizona 7171646 25 286.9
Maryland 6042718 19 318.0
Michigan 9995915 30 333.2
Ohio 11689442 33 354.2
South Carolina 5084127 13 391.1
Oklahoma 3943079 10 394.3
Utah 3161105 8 395.1
Virginia 8517685 21 405.6
California 39557045 88 449.5
North Carolina 10383620 23 451.5
Nebraska 1929268 4 482.3
Washington 7535591 15 502.4
Iowa 3156145 6 526.0
Kansas 2911505 5 582.3
Arkansas 3013825 5 602.8
Indiana 6691878 10 669.2
Pennsylvania 12807060 16 800.4
Minnesota 5611179 7 801.6
Colorado 5695564 7 813.7
Oregon 4190713 5 838.1
Illinois 12741080 15 849.4
Massachusetts 6902149 7 986.0
Connecticut 3572665 3 1190.9

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