As we head toward the early signing period, teams are frantically chasing recruits. When looking at how each of these teams may be doing in their endeavors, the starkness of difference among recruiting success (according to the composite ratings) by conferences really stood out to me. I decided to chart each of the Power 5 conferences along 3 dimensions: Number of Blue-Chip recruits, Average Rating, and Count of Top 1000 recruits.
The number of Blue-Chip recruits is simply those who are 4- or 5-star recruits. The average rating is just that- how each team’s (and collectively each conference’s) recruits average out in terms of rating. Only recruits rated in the top 1000 (as of December 7, 2019) are included in the analysis. Additionally, the analysis includes all commits and Crystal Ball leans. If a high school recruit does not have a favorite team to sign with (lean), he would not be included. So, we shall see just how accurate the Crystal Ball predictors are after NSD.
Recruiting Race by Conference Event #1: Total Count and BCs
In the graph below, we can easily see that the SEC is outpacing the rest by a comfortable margin. They have 245 commits/leans out of the top 1000 players, and 131 of those are Blue-Chips.
Here are how the conferences pan out by percentages:
The SEC is not only getting, or likely getting the most of the top 1000 players, they are cruising toward getting the lion’s share of the Blue-Chips.
Recruiting Race by Conference Event #2: Total Count and Average Rating
Ok, so we can see that the SEC recruits are likely to be higher rated on average because they have the most BCs. That kinda foreshadowed who would be leading this event. Here is how it shapes out to date:
Yea, the SEC is blowing the competition away in this category. SEC recruits average a .9015 rating with the next highest conference being the Big 10 with a .8856 average.
The Blue-Chip Ratio Visualization
The graph below shows how each team is doing in terms of Blue-Chip ratio (among the top 1000). This really highlights how well the top SEC teams recruit relative to the rest.
The more blue showing, the higher the BC ratio is. The larger the mark is, the higher the count is. LSU is masking Clemson due to overlap and Alabama is the blank blue square to the right of Georgia (name got blanked out for some reason). The larger the square the higher the count.
All conferences have teams that are pulling more than their share of the recruiting weight. However, in the SEC there is a bit less of this.
When adding up each of the scores and then ranking the conferences across all 3 dimensions, the SEC is the champ, so far.
When breaking down the scores and doing some statistical stuff, here is how each team ranks overall:
LSU’s great season appears to be continuing off the field as well (this was written before the SECCG). The SEC has 5 of the top 8 teams overall. Badass.