Composite Recruit Ratings, Stars, and the NFL Draft part 2

This post is a continuation of a prior analysis I did on the relationship between Composite 247 rating level and the NFL draft:

https://thefaircatch.com/2019/12/22/recruit-star-rankings-and-the-nfl-draft-a-quantitative-perspective/

In this part, I looked at the average rating and star count for each position group by round in which they were drafted. Again, only roughly the top 1000 recruits for each class from 2012 to 2019 were used. This way, all of the 5-stars, 4-stars, and elite 3-stars were included. If a drafted player was not ranked in the top 1000 out of high school, they are categorized as “unrated” for this study.

There were 2035 players drafted over this time according to Pro Football Reference (I assume this includes supplemental drafted players). I removed 36 specialists from the list, as they are not rated by the same standards as other players coming out of high school. Of those remaining, 961 were “Rated” (i.e. in the top 1000 of their class) and 1038 were “Unrated” for a total of 1999 players included in the analysis.

newTable1
Table 1

Table 1 shows each position group and the number of players drafted by round. It includes rated and unrated players. RBs and TEs are generally of lower draft value, while QBs are most likely to be taken in the first round.

avg.rating.pos
Table 2

Table 2 shows the average Composite Rating for players drafted by round and by position. By the heat-mapping, we can see that the higher, on average, a player is generally rated, the higher he will be drafted. An interesting note about this table- virtually every position group except RB and TE average about a .9300 rating in getting drafted in the first round. I will look more into this in the future, but this may be a potential threshold to look for when evaluating college football rosters. Beyond that, the NFL apparently is only comfortable drafting running backs in early rounds that are exceptional. Tight ends are rarely picked in the first round.

avg stars.pos
Table 3

Table 3 is the same as Table 2, but by the average star count.

count.rated
Table 4

Table 4 is the total count of Rated players drafted. Looks like DBs are in high demand for the NFL…

count.unrated
Table 5

Table 5 is the count of Unrated players by position and round drafted. It is apparent that of the drafted players who were not in the top 1000 of their class, they tend to get drafted in the later rounds.

Ugly Bonus Graph: Draft Data by Conference (kickers and punters removed)

The bigger the bubble, the higher the count.

UglyNFL

 

The purple bubbles (SEC) are larger for just about every position group among the P5 conferences.

Ugly Bonus Graph: Draft Data by Team (SEC Only)

The Gators are in 3rd place. Expect that to come up under Dan Mullen. Go Gators.

UglySEC

As always, if you see any data errors, let me know so I can fix them.

One thought on “Composite Recruit Ratings, Stars, and the NFL Draft part 2

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