Probability of Elite 2020 Class Recruits to be Drafted by an NFL Franchise

Using a naive Bayes machine learning model that I constructed on historical data with 71% accuracy (https://thefaircatch.com/2020/02/01/reviewing-the-recruiting-services-how-do-they-stack-up/), I put together predictions for top 150 ranked players by recruiting services (ESPN, Rivals, 24-7, and the Composite). The table below shows the model’s probability percentage for the player to be drafted. Of note, I’ll update missing/incorrect college team once NSD is over and everyone is settled in.

Player Pos. Group College P(Drafted)
Bryan Bresee DL Clemson 90.76%
Myles Murphy DL Clemson 88.01%
Jordan Burch DL South Carolina 87.35%
Gervon Dexter DL Florida 86.28%
Kelee Ringo DB Georgia 85.05%
Bijan Robinson RB Texas 82.73%
Jalen Carter DL Georgia 82.47%
Chris Braswell DL Alabama 82.31%
Zachary Evans RB TBD 82.29%
Will Anderson DL Alabama 81.66%
Bryce Young QB Alabama 80.75%
Demarkcus Bowman RB Clemson 79.64%
Elias Ricks DB LSU 78.77%
Paris Johnson Jr. OL Ohio State 78.20%
Broderick Jones OL Georgia 77.39%
Justin Flowe LB Oregon 76.53%
Julian Fleming WR Ohio State 76.50%
Jaylon Jones DB Texas A&M 74.53%
DJ Uiagalelei QB Clemson 73.36%
Arik Gilbert TE LSU 71.62%
Noah Sewell LB Oregon 71.27%
Demonte Capehart DL Clemson 71.19%
Jaquelin Roy DL LSU 66.68%
Tank Bigsby RB Auburn 66.30%
Dontae Manning DB Oregon 64.96%
Desmond Evans DL North Carolina 63.27%
Demorie Tate DB Florida State 61.71%
Marshawn Lloyd RB South Carolina 59.48%
Drew Sanders WR Alabama 59.44%
Kayshon Boutte WR LSU 58.46%
Demond Demas WR Texas A&M 57.07%
Jase McClellan RB Alabama 55.73%
Trenton Simpson LB Clemson 55.54%
Darnell Washington TE Georgia 54.98%
Donell Harris DL Texas A&M 54.70%
Rakim Jarrett WR Maryland 54.41%
Sav’ell Smalls LB Washington 54.15%
Tate Ratledge OL Georgia 53.50%
Justin Rogers DL Kentucky 53.44%
Mekhail Sherman LB Georgia 52.21%
Timothy Smith DL Alabama 51.68%
Avantae Williams DB Florida 51.66%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio State 50.69%
Kendall Milton RB Georgia 50.30%
Curtis Jacobs LB Penn State 49.55%
Alfred Collins DL Texas 49.20%
McKinnley Jackson DL Alabama 48.67%
Demouy Kennedy LB Alabama 47.67%
Jordan Johnson WR Notre Dame 46.68%
Clark Phillips III DB Utah 46.05%
Fred Davis II DB Clemson 45.86%
Zykeivous Walker DL Auburn 43.85%
Chris Tyree RB Notre Dame 43.69%
Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame 43.54%
Chantz Williams DL Miami 43.50%
BJ Ojulari DL LSU 43.37%
Omari Thomas DL Tennessee 43.11%
Roydell Williams RB Alabama 41.18%
Turner Corcoran OL Nebraska 40.88%
CJ Stroud QB Ohio State 40.59%
Brian Branch DB Alabama 39.95%
Walker Parks OL Clemson 39.61%
Myles Hinton OL Stanford 38.88%
Jaylan Knighton RB Miami 38.04%
Gary Bryant Jr. WR USC 35.41%
Keshawn Lawrence DB Tennessee 35.23%
Jordan Toles DB LSU 35.09%
Jahari Rogers DB Florida 34.99%
Sedrick Van Pran OL Georgia 34.73%
Antwaun Powell DL Florida 33.87%
Phillip Webb LB LSU 32.93%
Antonio Johnson DB Texas A&M 32.91%
Jahmyr Gibbs RB Georgia Tech 32.77%
Hudson Card QB Texas 32.23%
Marcus Rosemy WR Georgia 31.36%
Tre Williams DL Clemson 31.28%
Derek Wingo LB Florida 30.76%
Arian Smith WR Georgia 29.72%
Trey Wedig OL Wisconsin 29.16%
Andrew Gentry OL Virginia 28.91%
Quandarrius Robinson LB Alabama 28.54%
Paul Tchio OL Clemson 27.11%
Jacobian Guillory DL LSU 26.71%
Garrett Hayes OL TCU 26.42%
Xzavier Henderson WR Florida 26.16%
Ja’Quinden Jackson QB Texas 26.12%
Ej Smith RB Stanford 25.69%
Cody Simon LB Ohio State 25.42%
Jalen McMillan WR Washington 25.33%
Luke Doty QB South Carolina 25.14%
Jay Hardy DL Auburn 24.97%
Antonio Doyle LB Texas A&M 24.87%
Quentin Johnston WR TCU 24.51%
Vernon Broughton DL Texas 24.41%
E.J. Williams WR Clemson 24.33%
Don Chaney Jr. RB Miami 23.81%
Tyler Baron DL Tennessee 23.05%
Jermaine Burton WR Georgia 23.04%
Gee Scott Jr. WR Ohio State 22.60%
Daniyel Ngata RB Arizona State 21.76%
Andrew Raym OL Oklahoma 21.72%
A.J. Henning WR Michigan 21.66%
Devon Achane RB Texas A&M 21.36%
Blake Corum RB Michigan 21.15%
Jalen Berger RB Wisconsin 20.88%
Theo Johnson TE Penn State 20.59%
Kedrick Bingley-Jones DL North Carolina 20.38%
Myles Murphy DL North Carolina 20.38%
Jalen Kimber DB Georgia 19.56%
Jacolbe Cowan DL Ohio State 18.74%
Darrion Henry DL Ohio State 18.04%
Nate Anderson OL Oklahoma 17.96%
Jo’Quavious Marks RB Mississippi State 17.19%
Kevontre Bradford RB LSU 16.79%
Seth McGowan RB Oklahoma 16.76%
Evan Prater QB Cincinnati 15.78%
Wesley Steiner LB Auburn 15.74%
Ja’Qurious Conley DB North Carolina 15.60%
Jack Nelson OL Wisconsin 15.09%
Chris Morris OL Texas A&M 15.04%
Cole Brevard DL Penn State 15.04%
Marcus Dumervil OL LSU 15.00%
Peter Skoronski OL Northwestern 14.99%
Tosh Baker OL Notre Dame 14.99%
Luke Wypler OL Ohio State 14.97%
Mitchell Mayes OL Clemson 14.94%
Harrison Bailey QB Tennessee 14.79%
Jalen Rivers OL Miami 14.26%
Enzo Jennings DB Penn State 14.09%
Myles Murao OL Washington 14.05%
Chad Lindberg OL Georgia 13.94%
Xavion Alford DB Texas 13.83%
Antoine Sampah LB LSU 13.55%
Ze’Vian Capers ATH Auburn 13.03%
Haynes King QB Texas A&M 12.71%
Davin Vann DL NC State 12.68%
Reggie Grimes LB Oklahoma 12.58%
Jordan Botelho LB Notre Dame 11.81%
Ethan Garbers QB Washington 11.78%
Mookie Cooper WR Ohio State 11.71%
Josh Downs WR North Carolina 11.64%
Kevin Pyne OL Boston College 11.64%
Michael Carmody OL Notre Dame 11.57%
Braiden McGregor WR Michigan 11.48%
Zavier Betts WR Nebraska 11.48%
Jah-Marien Latham DL Alabama 11.47%
Malachi Wideman WR Florida State 11.38%
Johnny Wilson WR Arizona State 11.36%
John Humphreys WR Stanford 11.27%
Josh White LB LSU 11.09%
Thaiu Jones-Bell WR Alabama 11.08%
Keyshawn Greene LB Nebraska 10.98%
Kobe Hudson WR Auburn 10.90%
Chris Thompson Jr. DB Auburn 10.86%
Jay Butterfield QB Oregon 10.70%
Logan Jones DL Iowa 10.49%
Major Burns DB Georgia 10.38%
Nick Herbig LB Wisconsin 10.08%
Van Fillinger DL Utah 9.99%
Prince Dorbah LB Texas 9.90%
Dominic Bailey DL Tennessee 9.87%
Kevin Swint DL Clemson 9.78%
Patrick Jenkins DL TCU 9.78%
Morven Joseph DL Tennessee 9.75%
Rylie Mills DL Notre Dame 9.73%
Aaryn Parks OL Oklahoma 9.73%
Henry Parrish RB Ole Miss 9.38%
Cameron Roseman-Sinclair DB North Carolina 9.25%
Tirek Murphy RB Purdue 9.22%
Kitan Crawford WR Texas 9.12%
Daijun Edwards RB Georgia 8.97%
Jalen Harrell DB Miami 8.81%
Lawrance Toafili RB Florida State 8.74%
Ethan Pouncey DB Florida 8.53%
Jacobe Covington DB Washington 8.43%
Ayden Hector DB Stanford 8.33%
Elijhah Badger WR Arizona State 8.27%
Myles Slusher DB Arkansas 8.23%
Ozzy Trapilo OL Boston College 8.06%
Jordan Morant DB Michigan 8.05%
Darion Green-Warren DB Michigan 7.96%
Dwight Mcglothern DB LSU 7.80%
Lathan Ransom DB Ohio State 7.75%
Jahdae Barron DB Baylor 7.66%
Miles Brooks DB Georgia Tech 7.66%
Ryan Watts DB Ohio State 7.56%
Emmanuel Forbes DB Mississippi State 7.43%
Keshawn Washington DB Miami 7.32%
Roger Rosengarten OL Washington 7.16%
Jerrin Thompson DB Texas 7.07%
Andre Seldon DB Michigan 7.05%
Ladarius Tennison DB Auburn 7.05%
Akinola Ogunbiyi OL Texas A&M 6.94%
Issiah Walker Jr. OL Florida 6.29%
Jeff Sims QB Georgia Tech 6.15%
Kourt Williams LB Ohio State 6.06%
Kalel Mullings LB Michigan 5.99%
Malik Hornsby QB Arkansas 5.98%
Mohamed Kaba LB South Carolina 5.92%
Jake Majors OL Texas 5.91%
Tyler Van Dyke QB Miami 5.87%
Jalin Conyers TE Oklahoma 5.86%
Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M 5.64%
Shane Illingworth QB Oklahoma State 5.63%
Damian Sellers LB UCLA 5.58%
Michael Alaimo QB Purdue 5.56%
LV Bunkley-Shelton WR Arizona State 5.55%
Bryn Tucker OL Clemson 5.53%
Drew Pyne QB Notre Dame 5.50%
Zak Zinter OL Michigan 5.49%
Kris Hutson WR Oregon 5.32%
Jaquavion Fraziars WR Florida 5.32%
Loic Fouonji WR Texas Tech 5.32%
Eric Shaw WR South Carolina 5.30%
Javon Baker WR Alabama 5.25%
Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee 5.10%
Chubba Purdy QB Florida State 4.97%
Max Johnson QB LSU 4.84%
Darin Turner WR Arkansas 4.83%
Sergio Allen LB Clemson 4.82%
Michael Redding III WR Miami 4.71%
Kaden Johnson LB Wisconsin 4.54%
Jackson Bratton LB Alabama 4.47%
Len’Neth Whitehead LB Tennessee 4.47%
Bryan Robinson WR Florida State 4.34%
Jordan Addison WR Pittsburgh 4.27%
Koy Moore WR LSU 4.27%
Michael Henderson WR Oklahoma 4.20%
Rome Odunze WR Washington 4.14%
Jimmy Calloway WR Tennessee 4.05%
J.J. Evans WR Auburn 4.01%
Maliq Carr TE Purdue 3.74%
Luke Lachey TE Iowa 3.71%
Kevin Bauman TE Notre Dame 3.61%
Matthew Hibner TE Michigan 3.50%

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