The graph below shows how accurate Composite Crystal Ball (CB) predictions were relative to a recruit’s ultimate landing spot by month for the 2020 class. This is only for 4-star and 5-star players (composite).
I scraped web data every month and recorded it last year. Then, I just compared the CB % and commits to where a recruit ultimately signed. I’m doing the same for the 2021 class to see if it follows any trend.
Players that commit to a team generally stay committed. This is the same time frame of players who were committed to a team and ended up with that team.
Even as far back as February, 71% of Blue Chip recruits did not (ultimately) flip. We will see if this year is any different.