Analytics Posts

Reviewing SEC 2019 QB Performances: Burrow and Tua were great. Watch out for Kyle Trask next year.

In this analysis, I took the opportunity to look at how the SEC QBs performed in 2019 when controlling for the disparity in games played. As is evident in the table below, of SEC QBs with a minimum of 250 passes, there is a bit of disparity in the number of games played.sec2019rawperformance

Joe Burrow obviously had a fantastic year. But to get a sense of the year each QB had on a scale with each other, I took the average number of games played for these 10 qualifying QBs (12.1) and projected each of their statistical performances over that number of games. For my analysis, I only used the categories in gray in the above table. This is to avoid unnecessary repetitiveness, as completions and attempts comprise the category of “Pct” (completion percentage). Y/Comp uses the completion data, so I kept that.

Below is a look at how each of these QBs projected numbers would look:

sec2019QBadjperf

I then standardized each of the statistical categories except completions, as I no longer needed that. Of note, standardization worked here because each of the categories had data that were approximately normally distributed. Now, the only categories I was interested in were completion percentage, yards, TDs, Interceptions, and Yards per Completion. The standardized score with color-scaling is below:

sec2019QBstdperf

To see how each of the QBs did relative to their peers, I simply summed each of the standardized scores to achieve an aggregate score. I then graphed each of these to give a sense of proportion to each performance. Burrow and Tua were on a completely different level overall:

sec2019QBperf
* = standardized performance

Other than Tua and Burrow, only Kyle Trask and Jake Fromm had a net positive rating. Kudos to both. Below are the rankings and aggregate score for each QB:

2019SECQBperfRank

This analysis serves to highlight the magnitude of the year Burrow had and Tua would likely have had. Furthermore, it shows that Kyle Trask, who started the year as a backup, really did have an outstanding season. To play that well with such limited experience indicates to me that he will potentially have a great year next season. Trask should be considered the SEC’s leading QB going into 2020 in my opinion. Of course, no QB performs in a vacuum, but looking at the 2019 performances from a statistical standpoint is certainly encouraging for Florida fans and possibly the Cincinnati Bengals (Burrow) and Miami Dolphins (Tua).

A Peek at Things on a National Scale:

I also decided to apply the same process to the top ~100 QBs nationally (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-passing.html). Here, I included only the top 25 Power 5 QBs:

national

This shows us again how impressive Trask was in 2019. He ranked 16th nationally among P5 QBs. Of note, the aggregate score changed because it is based upon the relative national scores instead of the relative SEC scores as in the previous section. Furthermore, this table shows how Tua and Burrow were both dominant at the national level as well. Other takeaways for me were Sam Howell of North Carolina performing so well as a true freshman and Trevor Lawrence being *only* at number 10.

As always, let me know if there are any errors. Go Gators.