Analytics Posts

Visual breakdown of the SEC 2020 NFL Draft

As always, the SEC was well-represented in the NFL draft. The graph below shows how each SEC player was drafted relative to their Composite rating coming out of high school.

The Y-axis is draft points. Each player was given 100 points for the round in which they were drafted and 1 point for order within that round. For example, Joe Burrow was drafted in the first round (100 points) and was selected 1st in that round (1 point) for a total of 101 points. Fewer points obviously means a higher draft pick.

The x-axis is the player’s composite rating. The quadrants are created by averages of both axes. Quadrants are labeled 1 through 4, starting on the upper left and working clockwise from there.

SECgraphquads

Players in quadrant 1 were not highly rated coming out of high school and were drafted later than the conference average. Players in quadrant 3 were highly rated and drafted earlier. These can be considered accurate outcomes. Quadrants 2 and 4 work in the opposite way. They were either highly rated but drafted later (quadrant 2) or lower-rated and drafted earlier (quadrant 4).

accuracy

Most of the players (39.7%) fell into Q3, which is good. Overall, the Composite ratings were a pretty good indicator if a player would live up to their draft potential for SEC teams with an accuracy of 63.5%.

byteam

To no one’s surprise, LSU was a draft-day winner. They had 14 players drafted and on average went in the 3rd round. Alabama was very impressive.

bypos

The SEC had a lot of defensive linemen drafted and drafted highly. Pretty impressive.

The Players

Below is a list of all the SEC players drafted and their relevant info. The distance score is a player’s standardized draft points subtracted from their standardized composite rating. This metric was calculated to see just how far or near a player’s draft position matched his composite rating. A negative score indicates some level of overachieving, a positive score is the opposite (underachieving), and a score close to zero indicates the player pretty much got drafted as expected.

1and2

q3

Q4

The biggest overachiever was Justin Jefferson of LSU. I’m not discussing the biggest underachiever. I will, however, point out that the biggest underachieving QB was from Georgia.

As always, if you see any errors, just let me know so I can fix them.

Go Gators.

Reviewing SEC 2019 QB Performances: Burrow and Tua were great. Watch out for Kyle Trask next year.

In this analysis, I took the opportunity to look at how the SEC QBs performed in 2019 when controlling for the disparity in games played. As is evident in the table below, of SEC QBs with a minimum of 250 passes, there is a bit of disparity in the number of games played.sec2019rawperformance

Joe Burrow obviously had a fantastic year. But to get a sense of the year each QB had on a scale with each other, I took the average number of games played for these 10 qualifying QBs (12.1) and projected each of their statistical performances over that number of games. For my analysis, I only used the categories in gray in the above table. This is to avoid unnecessary repetitiveness, as completions and attempts comprise the category of “Pct” (completion percentage). Y/Comp uses the completion data, so I kept that.

Below is a look at how each of these QBs projected numbers would look:

sec2019QBadjperf

I then standardized each of the statistical categories except completions, as I no longer needed that. Of note, standardization worked here because each of the categories had data that were approximately normally distributed. Now, the only categories I was interested in were completion percentage, yards, TDs, Interceptions, and Yards per Completion. The standardized score with color-scaling is below:

sec2019QBstdperf

To see how each of the QBs did relative to their peers, I simply summed each of the standardized scores to achieve an aggregate score. I then graphed each of these to give a sense of proportion to each performance. Burrow and Tua were on a completely different level overall:

sec2019QBperf
* = standardized performance

Other than Tua and Burrow, only Kyle Trask and Jake Fromm had a net positive rating. Kudos to both. Below are the rankings and aggregate score for each QB:

2019SECQBperfRank

This analysis serves to highlight the magnitude of the year Burrow had and Tua would likely have had. Furthermore, it shows that Kyle Trask, who started the year as a backup, really did have an outstanding season. To play that well with such limited experience indicates to me that he will potentially have a great year next season. Trask should be considered the SEC’s leading QB going into 2020 in my opinion. Of course, no QB performs in a vacuum, but looking at the 2019 performances from a statistical standpoint is certainly encouraging for Florida fans and possibly the Cincinnati Bengals (Burrow) and Miami Dolphins (Tua).

A Peek at Things on a National Scale:

I also decided to apply the same process to the top ~100 QBs nationally (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-passing.html). Here, I included only the top 25 Power 5 QBs:

national

This shows us again how impressive Trask was in 2019. He ranked 16th nationally among P5 QBs. Of note, the aggregate score changed because it is based upon the relative national scores instead of the relative SEC scores as in the previous section. Furthermore, this table shows how Tua and Burrow were both dominant at the national level as well. Other takeaways for me were Sam Howell of North Carolina performing so well as a true freshman and Trevor Lawrence being *only* at number 10.

As always, let me know if there are any errors. Go Gators.

Blue-Chip Recruit Migration 2020 and THE Florida Gators.

With the 2020 recruiting cycle almost in the books, I reflected upon the migratory patterns of the elusive Blue-Chip Recruit (BCR) with a focus on how it relates to the state of Florida and more specifically, the University of Florida.

First up, I wanted to see how the committed (does not include uncommitted recruits as of January 10, 2020) BCRs are distributed (as of Christmas, 2019). Here is the geographic breakdown according to the Composite ratings:

overall BC count 2020

Ok, cool. Florida is doing its thing here. Next, I wanted to see how many of these commits were staying in-state or migrating elsewhere:

exporte bcrs

So, out of the 57 BCRs from the state of Florida, 31 of them have been exported (54%). How well does that compare to the other states? Let’s look:

perc exports

The above map shows the percentage of BCRs that are exported from each state(Of note, states that have no information on them didn’t produce any BCRs, whereas states with a 0.00 percent produced at least one BCR but that recruit didn’t leave the state). Here is a table of how each state that exported a BCR breaks down:

all state export

Importing

Now, I wanted to look at how each state is importing BCRs, as just looking at exporting doesn’t provide a good understanding of the overall migratory patterns. The map below shows how many BCRs were imported by state:

total imports 2020

And the net difference between imports and exports:

net bcrs

Florida had the largest number of BCRs migrate away from the state. South Carolina, Alabama, and Ohio had the largest influx of BCRs (not coincidentally the homes of Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, and Ohio State).

It is plain to see that the state of Florida is getting poached heavily from schools in other states. But does this mean UF is not handling their business or is it simply because FSU and Miami suck and once Florida fills its class, the rest of the quality BCRs are simply avoiding the Seminoles and ‘Canes? I took a quick look to see if UF is taking care of business in the state:

in state keeps

Out of the 26 BCRs that remained in the state, UF had the most and the highest rated on average, as the chart above shows. This is good. Now, I wanted to see if UF was holding its own against other states when it comes to recruiting the state of Florida.

florida bcrs for all states

All in all, UF, is doing pretty good here. They are retaining a lot of highly-rated recruits. The above table shows, however, that Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Georgia, and surprisingly Nebraska are all having some success picking up good players from Florida (thanks, Bowman).

UF is also importing players at a good clip. Here is a comparison of the big 3:

state of florida imports

FL imports breakdown

Ultimately, it looks as if UF recruiting is going fine. The state of Florida produces a significant amount of football talent, as is well-documented. Schools from all over are going to get in on that. However, UF is doing its fair share to retain talent and they are also picking up good talent from out of state.

As always, if you see any errors, just let me know. I’ve also broken all of this down by position and ratings, but that will have to wait for another post. Until then, Go Gators.